"BJP's 'Naya Kashmir' Dreams: What Went Wrong as Exit Polls Favor INDIA Bloc?"

The CVoter exit poll predicts a hung assembly in Jammu and Kashmir, with the National Conference-Congress alliance expected to win between 40 and 48 seats in the 95-member house. Ninety MLAs are elected, while five are nominated by the Lieutenant Governor.

The BJP's overall performance in the Valley, which has 47 seats, is expected to remain poor. It failed to secure any seats in the 2014 election, but it may finally open its account this time. Meanwhile, the party is likely to maintain its stronghold in Jammu, securing 27-31 seats out of the total 43, according to the CVoter exit poll shown by India Today.

These numbers bring good news for Farooq Abdullah’s National Conference and the Congress, but it's a setback for the BJP. Despite the central government’s efforts to transform the region into a ‘Naya Kashmir’ over the past five years, focusing on peace, development, and prosperity, the 'change' did not translate into votes for the saffron party.

This raises the question, why didn’t this ‘Naya Kashmir’ vision convert into electoral gains for the BJP, which has worked hard to expand its presence and strengthen its cadre in the Valley, while also forging alliances with parties like Syed Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Party and Sajjad Lone’s Peoples Conference.

A stronger performance in the Valley was crucial for the BJP’s ambitions of getting its first Chief Minister in Jammu and Kashmir. However, nothing seems to have worked for them in the region. The first signs of this were evident during the Lok Sabha elections when the BJP failed to contest any of the three parliamentary segments in the Valley. To many, this was seen as an acknowledgement of the party’s inability to achieve its mission in Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 370.

Failure to convince people that Article 370 was a bane, not a matter of dignity
When the central government abrogated Article 370 in August 2019, stripping Jammu and Kashmir of its special status and splitting it into Union Territories, the region was placed under unprecedented restrictions for several months. As the situation began to normalize, the Narendra Modi government put forth its narrative for a ‘Naya Kashmir’, with promises of development, jobs, and security. However, little was done to address the sense of loss felt by the people over the removal of their special status.

Meanwhile, regional parties like the National Conference (NC) and Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) tapped into the ‘dignity’ factor, framing the move as anti-Kashmir and painting the BJP as anti-Kashmiri, a sentiment that has remained alive in spite of peace, developmental push of the BJP.

The fallout of heavy-handed approach against separatists on free speech and civil rights
The BJP’s ‘Naya Kashmir’ security strategy involved a policy of collective responsibility and punishment, which has led to public discontent. While firm actions against terrorism, separatism, and stone-pelting were welcomed, many residents felt that the right to free speech was being suppressed. The widespread perception that fear is being used to curb dissent has limited the BJP's ability to gain electoral traction in the Valley.

Gap between promises and action on jobs and investments
After Kashmir was made a Union Territory, the BJP promised a wave of developmental projects, including job creation through massive investments, targeting the region’s large number of educated but unemployed youth. However, the lack of significant progress on these critical issues has fostered a sense of frustration and betrayal among the people.

Allies in Kashmir failed to deliver
As part of its electoral strategy, the BJP sought to expand beyond the traditional dominance of the NC and PDP by forging alliances with newer parties, such as the Apni Party and the People's Conference. However, years of investment in these alliances did not bear fruit, as these parties failed to emerge as strong political forces capable of challenging the established players like the NC or PDP.

The Congress-National Conference alliance is projected to win 40-48 out of the 90 Assembly seats, according to the CVoter exit poll. While the BJP is expected to secure 27-32 seats, the Mehbooba Mufti-led People's Democratic Party (PDP) may win 6-12 seats. Other parties and independent candidates could take 6-11 seats.