The Congress is projected to win in Haryana, while a hung house is predicted in Jammu and Kashmir, according to the poll of exit polls.
The Congress is expected to win the next government in Haryana, bringing an end to the BJP's 10-year rule. In addition, its alliance with the National Conference may lead in the race for Jammu and Kashmir, potentially resulting in a divided mandate.
Arpit Pattnaik
The Congress, which had a significantly improved performance in the Lok Sabha election, is expected to end the year on a positive note, as indicated by exit polls. The party is likely to form the next government in Haryana, ending the BJP's 10-year rule. Additionally, its alliance with the National Conference may lead in the race for Jammu and Kashmir, which could result in a fragmented mandate.
An aggregate of seven exit polls suggests that the Congress will win 55 out of Haryana's 90 seats, comfortably surpassing the halfway mark of 45.
In Jammu and Kashmir, which also has 90 seats after delimitation, the Congress-National Conference alliance is projected to win 43 seats, just three short of the majority mark.
Exit polls can often be inaccurate, and the BJP could potentially secure 27 seats in both Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir. One exit poll, Jist-TIF Research, even gave the BJP an upper limit of 37 seats in Haryana.
In Haryana, Abhay Chautala's INLD (Indian National Lok Dal) is expected to win two seats, and the BJP's former ally JJP (Jannayak Janata Party) may secure one seat. Despite ruling in neighboring Delhi and Punjab, exit polls indicate that Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party may not win any seats in Haryana.
The situation in Jammu and Kashmir, where assembly elections were held after a decade, presents interesting possibilities due to the prediction of a hung assembly.
An aggregate of three exit polls indicates that the Congress and the National Conference may end up with 43 seats. The BJP's projected score of 26 could leave it far from the majority mark, making it challenging to form an alliance with smaller parties or Independents.
Mehbooba Mufti's Peoples Democratic Party is expected to win seven seats and is hoping to emerge as the kingmaker. The party has ruled out any possibility of a tie-up with the BJP, emphasizing only a "secular alliance".
The BJP-PDP alliance, formed after a split verdict in 2014, broke down in 2018, following which the state was placed under President's rule. In 2019, the state was split into two Union Territories, a situation the BJP has promised to reverse in its third term at the Centre.
The onus may be on the National Conference and the Congress to reach out to the PDP. However, the historic rivalry between the NC and the PDP, which have always competed for votes in the Kashmir Valley, could pose a challenge.
Before the election, Mehbooba Mufti had made an offer to the NC-Congress alliance, stating that she was willing to stay out of the election and leave all assembly seats for them if they accepted the PDP's agenda, including its stance on Kashmir.
The two parties, part of the Gupkar alliance aiming for the restoration of statehood, had been unable to come to an agreement for the Lok Sabha polls, despite repeated requests by the Congress.
The vote counting will take place on October 8.
